Womenswear on Meta: how we counted, and how to set it up
For the performance marketer who wants to know how a doubled budget was judged on store orders rather than Meta reports, and how the audiences were built.
- Every definition behind the numbers on the case study
- The setup in the store, step by step
- What to check in your own data
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What was measured
Period and population
The same Singapore womenswear brand on Shopify. One Meta campaign over 79 days in mid-2026, with three audiences. The year-on-year comparison uses the same 60 days, 23 May to 22 July, in 2025 and 2026. The ad-set comparison uses 72 days with the same creative in the same countries. The buyer-rate comparison uses a matched 30-day cohort.
What counts as a result
Daily budget 2.1 times over 79 days with return on ad spend held within 8%. Same 60 days: Meta spend indexed 100 against 89, store revenue per Meta dollar 6.09 against 6.45, store revenue per click indexed 100 against 188, revenue per customer 100 against 133. Ad sets over 72 days: value-based lookalike 5.67, customers and visitors 5.46, broad demographic 5.28. Matched cohort: buyer rate 0.56% against 0.34%.
How an order is credited
Revenue figures are Shopify orders, not Meta's attribution. Before the change, reported purchases were counted 1.8 to 1.9 times, and only about 30% of Facebook visitors carried an identifier the pixel could use. Server-side capture sends Meta clean events, each purchase counted once.
Controlled or observed
The yearly comparison is the same season, not a controlled test: the 60 days match, but other things changed too. The spring-to-summer drop in efficiency was −24% in 2025 and −12% in 2026. The ad-set comparison holds creative and countries constant.
What the numbers do not say
Return on ad spend here is store revenue per Meta dollar, so it cannot be compared with a ROAS from Meta's own report. Of 3,000 abandoned browsers on a typical day before the change, 101 could be retargeted.
The terms on the case study
| Term | How it is defined here |
|---|---|
| Store revenue per Meta dollar | Shopify revenue from the campaign's orders divided by Meta spend: 6.09 in 2025, 6.45 in 2026. |
| Return held within 8% | Over 79 days the daily budget rose 2.1 times and store revenue per Meta dollar stayed within 8% of where it started. |
| Value-based lookalike | A new-customer audience seeded with the shoppers the agent predicts will spend most over the next 12 months. 5.67 over 72 days. |
| Visitors weighted by predicted value | The mid-funnel audience: site visitors, each weighted by their predicted 12-month spend. |
| Clean purchase event | One server-side event per Shopify purchase, including in-app browser sessions, counted once. |
| Matched 30-day cohort | Profiles the campaign reached against profiles the old campaign reached, over 30 days each: buyer rate 0.56% against 0.34%, 65% higher. |
What was switched on, in order
Every session captured server-side
Including Facebook's in-app browser, so the purchase signal is complete and each purchase is counted once.
Predicted value per shopper
For every shopper, the agent predicts spend over the next 12 months.
One campaign, three audiences
A value-based lookalike for new customers, visitors weighted by predicted value, and existing customers.
Clean events to Meta
Server-side purchase events, each purchase once, so Meta optimizes on the store's truth.
The read-out
Store revenue per Meta dollar over the same 60 days a year apart, the ad sets over 72 days with the same creative, and the matched 30-day cohort.
To check it in your own store
Judge the campaign on Shopify orders, not on Meta's purchase count: divide store revenue from the campaign's orders by spend, and compare the same 60 days of the year before.
Compare ad sets only with the same creative in the same countries, and check the buyer rate of the profiles each campaign reached over a matched window. If the store return holds while the budget doubles, the audience is finding buyers, not clicks.
See which of last week's visitors you missed
Thirty minutes, with your store and ad accounts open. Then 30 days free. A holdout group decides: if the agent doesn't add orders in 30 days, you don't pay.
Book 30 minutes
You'll talk to one of us.